Tuesday, February 24, 2009

How Do We Differentiate Between Correlation & Causation

You find a glass of lemonade on a picnic table and drink it. Two hours later, you're sick, with a fever and a headache. You then ask yourself if the glass of pink lemonade you drank was the cause of your sickness. Though you might not realize it, your question is an investigation into correlation and causation. Before you can continue this investigation, you must be able to distinguish between correlation and causation.


Instructions


1. Refer to a discussion of correlation and causation by Dr. L. Kip Wheeler of Carson-Newman College. Note that Dr. Wheeler defines causation as what happens when a specific event causes another specific event.


2. Read University of Northern Kentucky philosopher professor Rudy Garns' explanation of the difference between causal relationships and correlations and Garns' distinction that causal relationships are "lawlike." This means that if a given event causes another event, this event always causes that event. For example, every time you put your bare hand in the ocean, your hand gets wet. The relationship between putting your bare hand in the ocean and your hand getting wet is causal.


3. Study section seven of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy entry for British philosopher David Hume. Note especially that Hume saw cause as the strongest of the three connections the mind makes between ideas: "resemblance, contiguity, and cause and effect." Contiguity is a type of correlation. It means a closeness of association.


4. Read a discussion of correlation by Northern Virginia Community College psychology professor Dr. Elizabeth Lanthier. Read also an outline of the role of correlation in data analysis by University of Wisconsin professor of geology David L. Ozsvath. Consider that according to Dr. Lanthier, even though we know two variables are positively or negatively correlated, we cannot say the relationship they represent is causal. For example, the fact that all Martians speak English does not mean being a Martian causes a Martian to speak English. It may simply mean the only teacher on Mars is an English teacher.


5. Note further that correlation is not causation, but as Alexs Jakulin says, "It [Correlation] does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing, 'Look over there.'" This means that correlation does not prove a casual relationship, but it can indicate one.


6. Write a sentence using the word "correlation." For example, you write, "I drink a Diet Coke every two hours. There is a correlation between time and my drinking a Diet Coke."


7. Write a sentence using the word "causation." For example, you write, "Thirst causes me to drink a Diet Coke every two hours. The relationship between my thirst and my drinking a Diet Coke is causative. It is an example of causation."







Tags: Diet Coke, correlation causation, bare hand, bare hand ocean, causal relationships, causes another